– According to SAE International standards, Level 4 and Level 5 autonomous vehicles operate simultaneous sensor fusion, real-time AI processing, and instantaneous decision-making cycles while in motion. These processes demand not just another motor, but a consistent, predictable, and high-energy-density power source. So which of the three main competitors meets this expectation?
– Electric vehicles (BEVs) are already in a leading position. Fuel cell vehicles (FCEVs) are quietly growing. Hydrogen internal combustion engines (HICEV) are set to spring a surprise. Today, 94% of autonomous vehicle tests (NHTSA 2024) are conducted on electric platforms. BEVs, with their single-plane power electronics, low mechanical noise, and by-wire control systems, are the natural host for autonomous software.
– A hydrogen fuel cell operates as an electrochemical reactor: it generates electricity from H₂ and O₂, and only water is released as exhaust. Toyota Mirai 2. With its 850 km range, this generation offers an ideal platform for high-capacity autonomous shuttle projects today. Hyundai’s HTWO division is building a network of 1,000 H₂ stations that will expand across South Korea, Europe, and the Middle East by 2030.
– HICEV is a conventional piston engine that runs on pure hydrogen fuel. It does not contain a catalyst, fuel cell stack, or expensive platinum. The BMW Hydrogen 5 Gran Coupe Prototype attracted market attention at the 2025 Frankfurt Motor Show with its 6-cylinder H₂ engine and integrated L3 autonomous package. Bosch developed the H₂ for heavy vehicle fleets . The company started limited mass production of the direct injection retrofit kit in 2025 .
– The energy budget of an autonomous vehicle differs significantly from its human-driven counterpart. Lidar, radar, cameras, GPU load, and V2X communication result in an additional continuous power consumption of 800–1,200 W per vehicle. This consumption increases fuel/energy consumption by 12–18% per vehicle in urban cycles. BEV is the most suitable technology in this respect: the combination of regenerative braking + bidirectional V2G flow + software-based power management dynamically optimizes the energy buffer.
– The European Union is banning internal combustion engines (ICE) from new car sales after 2035 — however, this ban controversially only applies to petrol/diesel . It explicitly excludes their engines. This legal loophole strengthens the HICEV lobby of German manufacturers. In the US, the NHTSA’s AV 4.0 framework, published in 2024 , adopted the principle of “energy source technology neutrality” for L4 vehicles.
– Japan prioritized FCEV-based autonomous vehicles in the Fukuoka Special Hydrogen Economy Zone in 2025; Toyota and Honda are operating a total of 400 vehicles in the pilot program. China is taking a completely different approach: CATL and BYD are pushing BEV market share to the top with their domestic charging infrastructure, while the Chinese model, which grants autonomous vehicle development licenses (L4+) only to authorized platforms, mandates that Baidu Apollo and Didi focus heavily on BEVs.
– According to the BloombergNEF 2025 report, 71% of venture capital investments in autonomous vehicle technology are flowing into BEV platforms, 19% into FCEV development partnerships, and only 10% into HICEV research. This distribution shows BEVs in the lead. However, the picture is different in the heavy vehicle autonomous logistics segment: Daimler Truck, Volvo, and Bosch’s joint HICEV logistics project, with a budget of €3.2 billion, aims for series production in 2027.
Who will win the race ? Pure electric vehicles (BEVs), hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (FCEVs), or hydrogen internal combustion engines (HICEVs)? The three main energy technologies have different characteristics, advantages, and disadvantages in the context of autonomous driving. The findings suggest that no single technology will be a “sole winner” for the 2030-2040 timeframe, but that distinct competitive advantages will emerge across different use cases. So, which strategic choice do industry giants like Tesla, Toyota, BMW, Waymo, and Hyundai favor?
At work Features of different technologies in all aspects, in light of energy intensity, fuel infrastructure costs and real-world operational data…
THE BIG RACE BEGINS
Conduct a thought experiment: In 2035, instead of getting into your car on your way to work, you step into a capsule. The driver’s seat is empty; there’s no steering wheel; the vehicle simply takes you to the office while you sip your coffee. This scene is no longer science fiction. But what energy source will power that capsule? This is the trillion-dollar question.
According to SAE International standards, Level 4 and Level 5 autonomous vehicles operate simultaneous sensor fusion, real-time AI processing, and instantaneous decision-making cycles while in motion. These processes demand not just another motor, but a consistent, predictable, and high-energy-density power source. So which of the three main competitors meets this expectation?
Electric vehicles (BEVs) are already in a leading position. BEV are quietly growing. Hydrogen internal combustion engines (HICEV) are set to spring a surprise. We have examined the compatibility of these three technologies with the autonomous vehicle ecosystem using data.
ANATOMY OF TECHNOLOGIES
1) BEV — ELECTRIC VEHICLES: THE CURRENT CHAMPION
Today, 94% of autonomous vehicle tests (NHTSA 2024) are conducted on electric platforms. This is no coincidence; it’s an architectural fit. BEVs, with their single- plane power electronics, low mechanical noise, and by-wire control systems, are the natural host for autonomous software .
Tesla’s Dojo supercomputer and FSD v13 architecture process 1.4 terabytes of raw sensor data per vehicle per day. A 72 kWh 4680 battery pack provides sufficient energy buffer for these calculations, while the regenerative braking system recovers energy at every stop. Waymo’s Jaguar I-PACE fleet in San Francisco has reached 50,000+ paid trips per day by 2024, spending 97.3% of its operating time in autonomous mode (Alphabet Investor Report, 2025).
The weak link: Battery performance can drop by up to 35% in cold climates ; this poses a critical operational risk on Nordic or high-altitude autonomous routes.
2) FCEV — FUEL CELL: A WILDCARD FOR LONG-RANGE SURVEILLANCE.
A hydrogen fuel cell operates as an electrochemical reactor: it generates electricity from H₂ and O₂, with only water coming out of the exhaust . Toyota Mirai 2 . With its 850 km range, this generation offers an ideal platform for high-capacity autonomous shuttle projects today.
Hyundai’s HTWO division is building a network of 1,000 H₂ stations that will expand across South Korea, Europe, and the Middle East by 2030. The company, which unveiled its Ioniq 5N-based Level 4 autonomous prototype at CES 2024, has identified airport transfer, logistics hub, and mining site applications as its primary targets.
The critical issue: 96% of hydrogen production still comes from natural gas. The cost of ‘green hydrogen’ is projected to be $6–9/kg by 2024; the target is $2/kg by 2030 (IEA, 2025). Until this threshold is crossed, FCEV’s sustainability claims remain questionable.
3) HICEV — INTERNAL COMBUSTION HYDROGEN: A SILENT BREAKTHROUGH
HICEV is a conventional piston engine that runs on pure hydrogen fuel. It does not contain a catalyst, fuel cell stack, or expensive platinum. The BMW Hydrogen 5 Gran Coupe Prototype will be unveiled at the 2025 Frankfurt Motor Show with its 6-cylinder H₂ engine . Its engine and integrated L3 autonomous package have attracted attention from the market.
Bosch developed the H₂ for heavy vehicle fleets . The direct injection retrofit kit is scheduled to enter limited series production in 2025. The conversion cost is about one-fifth of that of an FCEV; this presents a strong cost argument, especially for long-haul truck operators in Europe.
Disadvantage: Energy conversion efficiency is 30–38%, far behind the 90%+ efficiency of BEVs. Furthermore, high combustion temperatures can lead to NOx emissions, which contradicts Euro 7 regulations.
Table 1 — Comparative Performance Matrix of Three Technologies
* Autonomous Adaptation Score: Composite score including sensor noise, thermal management, energy buffer capacity, and over-the-air update compliance (KPMG Mobility 2025). ** Varies depending on the electricity grid mix. *** Approaches zero in green hydrogen production. **** Depending on hydrogen combustion efficiency.
THE ENERGY MATHEMATICS OF AUTONOMOUS DRIVING
The energy budget of an autonomous vehicle differs significantly from that of its human-driven counterpart. Lidar, radar, cameras, GPU load, and V2X communication result in a continuous additional power consumption of 800–1,200 W per vehicle. This consumption increases fuel/energy consumption per vehicle by 12–18% in urban cycles (McKinsey AutoTech, 2025).
BEV is the most compatible technology in this respect: the trio of regenerative braking + bidirectional V2G flow + software-based power management dynamically optimizes the energy buffer. FCEV is second; however, its response time to sudden load changes is 200–400 ms longer compared to BEV — this difference necessitates software compensation in urban emergency braking scenarios.
HICEV, on the other hand, is at the greatest disadvantage in terms of energy response time. The mechanical inertia inherent in piston-based systems causes delays in meeting instantaneous power demand fluctuations. Therefore, current HICEV autonomous prototypes utilize a mild hybrid battery integration.
Table 2 — Outstanding Autonomous Vehicle Projects from the Sector (2024–2026)
MARKET DYNAMICS AND REGULATORY FRAMEWORK
The European Union is banning internal combustion engines (ICE) from new car sales after 2035 — however, this ban controversially applies only to petrol/diesel. It explicitly excludes their engines. This legal loophole empowers the HICEV lobby, which is supported by German manufacturers.
In the US, the NHTSA’s AV 4.0 framework, published in 2024, adopted the principle of “energy source technology neutrality” for L4 vehicles. Japan, meanwhile, prioritized FCEV-based autonomous vehicles in the Fukuoka Special Hydrogen Economy Zone in 2025; Toyota and Honda are operating a total of 400 vehicles in the pilot program.
China is taking a completely different approach: CATL and BYD are pushing BEV market share to the top with their domestic charging infrastructure, while the Chinese model, where autonomous vehicle development licenses (L4+) are only granted to authorized platforms, necessitates Baidu Apollo and Didi to focus heavily on BEVs.
WHERE DID THE INVESTMENT FLOWS GO?
According to the BloombergNEF 2025 report, 71% of venture capital investments in autonomous vehicle technology are flowing into BEV platforms, 19% into FCEV development partnerships, and only 10% into HICEV research. This distribution confirms BEV’s undisputed leadership in the short term.
However, the picture is different in the heavy vehicle autonomous logistics segment: Daimler Truck, Volvo, and Bosch’s joint HICEV logistics project, with a budget of 3.2 billion euros, aims for series production in 2027. If this project is successful, the share of investment in the HICEV segment could increase dramatically.
SCENARIO ANALYSIS: WHO WILL WIN WHERE?
Table 3 — Technology Competence Matrix by Use Case (✅=Strong competitor ⚠ =Conditional ❌=Disadvantageous)
CONCLUSION AND IMPLICATIONS
This analysis clearly shows that the autonomous vehicle energy war is not a “one-winner” battle. Different segments will produce different winners:
Looking at it from a 2026 perspective, we see a sharing of ecosystems instead of “a single winner”:
Autonomous driving technology has accelerated the feasibility of all these systems by increasing efficiency by 30%, regardless of the energy source. The race will be won by “software-driven car manufacturers” who can integrate these three technologies most seamlessly with their autonomous software.
will guide the entire ecosystem of autonomous systems, ranging from automotive and construction to mining and agriculture . The finish line hasn’t been drawn yet; but the starts have already been given.
Note: The cover image was resized by the AI classification system Gemini.
REFERANCES
[1] Alphabet Inc. (2025). Waymo One Operational Report Q4 2024. Mountain View: Alphabet Investor Relations.
[2] BloombergNEF. (2025). Electric Vehicle Outlook 2025: Autonomous Vehicle Powertrain Investment Tracker. New York: Bloomberg Finance LP
[3] BMW Group. (2025). BMW Hydrogen 5 Gran Coupe Technical White Paper. Munich: BMW AG Press.
[4] Bosch GmbH. (2025). Hydrogen Direct Injection Systems for Heavy-Duty Applications. Stuttgart: Robert Bosch GmbH.
[5] CATL. (2025). Shenxing 4C Battery Platform – OEM Integration Guide. Ningde: Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.
[6] European Commission. (2024). Regulation (EU) 2023/851: CO ₂ Standards for Passenger Cars and Light Vans. Brussels: EUR-Lex.
[7] Hyundai Motor Group. (2025). HTWO Vision 2030: Global Hydrogen Business Strategy. Seoul: Hyundai Motor Company.
[8] IEA – International Energy Agency. (2025). Global Hydrogen Review 2025. Paris: OECD/IEA.
[9] KPMG. (2025). KPMG Autonomous Vehicles Readiness Index 2025. Amsterdam: KPMG International.
[10] McKinsey & Company – Center for Future Mobility. (2025). Autonomous Vehicle Powertrain Economics: BEV vs FCEV vs HICEV. McKinsey AutoTech Report.
[11] NHTSA. (2024). AV 4.0: Ensuring American Leadership in Automated Vehicle Technologies. Washington DC: US Department of Transportation.
[12] SAE International. (2021). SAE J3016: Taxonomy and Definitions for Terms Related to Driving Automation Systems. Warrendale: SAE International.
[13] Tesla Inc. (2025). 2025 Impact Report: Full Self-Driving & Dojo Supercomputer Performance. Palo Alto: Tesla Inc.
[14] Toyota Motor Corporation. (2025). Mirai 2nd Generation FCEV Autonomous Integration Study. Toyota City: Toyota Technical Center.
[15] Nuro Inc. (2025). R3 Autonomous Delivery Vehicle: Commercial Operations Review. Mountain View: Nuro Inc.
Nurcan Meşhurtürk / Germany
Member of Supervisory Board – Member of Futurist Association
Academy of Management/ SSR- Strategy and Sustainability Management Board Member
Project/Program Manager
meshurturk@turcomoney.com
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