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Trump ve Biden: Kim kazanırsa ne olur?

*Artan jeopolitik riskler, TL’deki oynaklığın yükselmesi ve artan Covid-19 vakaları nedeniyle ekonomilerde kapanma beklentileriyle yurt dışı borsalarda oluşan satışların da etkisiyle BIST 100 ayı yüzde 5 üzeri düşüşle 1.100’lü seviyelerinden kapatmaya hazırlanıyor. TL’deki değer kayıpları TCMB faiz kararı sonrası güçlenirken, TL ayı yaklaşık yüzde 8’lik güçlü değer kaybı ile kapatıyor.

 

*TL’deki değer kayıplarının güçlenmesi ve enflasyon beklentilerinde bozulmaya neden olması durumunda TCMB’nin Kasım toplantısında politika faizini ortalama fonlama maliyetine yaklaştırarak yükseltmeyi sürdürmesi bekleniyor. Olası faiz artışının fonlama maliyetinin çok altında kalması ya da faizlerin sabit bırakılması durumunda TL’deki değer kayıplarının güçlenmesi devam etmesi beklenir.

 

*FED tutanaklarında ABD ekonomisinin üçüncü çeyrekte hızlı bir şekilde toparlandığına işaret edilirken ilave mali desteğin sağlanmaması durumunda ekonomik toparlanma hızının yavaşlayabileceğine dikkat çekildi. Bu bakımdan üzerinde anlaşma sağlanamayan ABD ek teşvik paketinin ekonomik toparlanmanın devamı için önemli olduğunu düşünüyoruz..

 

*Dolar/TL kuru ayın sonunda 8.35’in üzerinde fiyatlandı. Enflasyon beklentilerinde bozulma olması durumunda sıkılaştırma adımlarına devam edileceğinin güveni verilemedikçe Türk Lirasındaki negatif ayrışma maalesef devam edecek. ABD seçim sonuçlarına göre TCMB’den yeni adımlar gelebilir. Kurda 8.50 direnci aşılırsa 9.00 seviyesi hedeflenebilir. TL’ye talep ile 7.85 ve 7.15 destekleri takip edilebilir.

 

*ABD seçimlerinin yaklaşması ve koronavirüs vakalarının hızla artması sonrası 2. kapamaların başlaması, riskten kaçışı artırıyor. Bu da talebin emtialardan dolara kaymasına sebep oluyor. Bu sebeple satışların arttığı ons altında fiyatlar 1.870 dolar desteğine kadar geri çekildi. Bu seviye, önemli bir destek seviyesi… Bu desteğin kırılması halinde 100 dolarlık bir düşüş potansiyeli gözüküyor.

 

*ABD’de Demokratların seçimlerden sonra daha büyük bir teşvik paketini gündem getirmeleri, seçim sonuçlarının negatif baskısını azaltabilir. Biden’in Türkiye’ye yönelik negatif açıklamaları nedeniyle seçilmesi durumunda TL varlıkların seçim sonuçlarına kısa vadeli tepkisinin negatif olması bekleniyor. Aksine seçimlerden Trump’ın galip çıkmasına ise TL varlıkların kısa vadeli tepkisinin pozitif olması beklenir. 

 

*Hem global risk iştahındaki zayıflama hem de jeopolitik risklerin artması nedeniyle Kasım ayında piyasalarda dalgalanmanın yüksek seyretmesi ve negatif fiyatlamanın ağır basması bekleniyor. Trump’ın kazanması ve jeopolitik risklerin zayıflaması durumunda TL varlıklarda ay sonuna doğru toparlanma yaşanabilir. Kasım ayları genellikle hedge fonlar için pozisyon kapatılan bir ay olması nedeniyle hem yurtiçinde hem de yurtdışında negatif fiyatlamaların oluşmasında etken olabilir.

 

*BIST’in geçmiş Kasım ayı performansları incelendiğinde endekste genellikle dalgalı bir seyir ve negatif baskının oluştuğu ancak endeksin ay sonuna doğru bu kayıplarını telafi ettiği görülmektedir. Bu beklentiler ışığında BIST’in Kasım 1.060-1.170 aralığında dalgalanabileceğini, 1.070 ve altına gerilemelerin kısa vadeli alım fırsatı, 1.160 ve üzeri ise satışı fırsatı olarak değerlendirilebilir.

 

Ekim ayında riskten kaçış eğilimi, artan Covid-19 vaka sayıları nedeniyle başta AB ülkeleri olmak üzere tedbirlerin yeniden artırılması ve ekonomilerin yeniden kapanma riski ile karşı karşıya kalması sonrası yükseldi. Ayrıca, ABD seçimleri belirsizliği ve ek teşvik paketinin seçim sonrasına kalma ihtimali riskten kaçışın artmasında etkili oldu.

Yurtdışı borsalar ayı yüzde 3-9 arasında değişen düşüşlerle kapatırken, Almanya DAX endeksi sert düşüşle majör borsalar içinde güçlü negatif ayrışan borsa oldu. Asya borsaları ise Covid-19 vaka sayılarının daha düşük seyretmesinin etkisiyle Ekim ayında pozitif ayrışan grupta yer aldı.

Yurt içinde ise başta Akdeniz’de yaşanan gerilim, Libya, Suriye konusundaki gelişmeler ve Azerbaycan-Ermenistan çatışması nedeniyle başta Fransa olmak üzere AB ve ABD ile ilişkilerde yaşanan gerginlikle artan jeopolitik riskler, TL varlıklarda satış baskısı oluşmasına neden oldu. TCMB’nin beklentilerin tersine gösterge faizini sabit tutarak, geç likidite penceresi faiz oranında artışa gitmesi de TL’deki değer kayıplarının güçlenerek devamına ve BIST-100 endeksinin son sekiz ayın zirvesi olan 1.222 seviyesinden sert düşüşe geçmesinde etkili oldu.

ARTAN JEOPOLİTİK RİSKLER, TL’DEKİ OYNAKLIĞIN YÜKSELMESİ

Artan jeopolitik riskler, TL’deki oynaklığın yükselmesi ve artan Covid-19 vakaları nedeniyle ekonomilerde kapanma beklentileriyle yurt dışı borsalarda oluşan satışların da etkisiyle BIST 100 Endeksi ayı yüzde 5 üzeri düşüşle 1.100’lü seviyelerinden kapatmaya hazırlanıyor.

TL’deki değer kayıpları TCMB faiz kararı sonrası güçlenirken, TL ayı yaklaşık yüzde 8’lik güçlü değer kaybı ile kapatıyor. Eylül ayında başlatılan normalleşme adımlarının olumlu etkisiyle ay içinde 500 seviyeleri altına gerileyen Türkiye CDS’leri, artan jeopolitik riskler ve TCMB faiz kararı sonrası yeniden yükselişe geçerek ayı 560’lı seviyelerinin üzerinden kapatıyor. CDS’lerdeki yükseliş eğilimi TL varlıklara yönelik risk algısının tekrar yükseldiğine işaret ediyor.

VIX VOLATİLİTE ENDEKSİ İSE AYI 39 SEVİYELERİNDEN KAPATTI

VIX volatilite endeksi ise ayı 39 seviyelerinden kapatırken, endeks 33 seviyeleri üzerinde kaldıkça ABD borsalarında volatilite ile satış baskısının devam edeceğine işaret ediyor. Endekste son dönemde oluşan yükseliş eğilimi piyasalardaki bozulmanın güç kazanabileceğine işaret ederken, endeksin 44’lü seviyeler üzerine yönelmesi ise satış baskısının paniğe dönüşerek sertleşeceğine işaret ediyor.

TCMB Ekim toplantısında piyasanın ortalama 200 baz puanlık faiz artışı beklentisine karşın sürpriz bir kararla politika faizini yüzde 10,25’de sabit bırakırken, GLP (geç likidite penceresi) faiz oranını 150 baz puan artırarak yüzde 14,75’e yükseltti. Karar sonrası son dönemde para politikasındaki normalleşme adımlarıyla güçlü yükseliş gerçekleştiren banka hisselerinde sert satışlar yaşanırken, TL’de değer kayıpları güçlenerek devam etti.

ENFLASYONDA İYİLEŞME SAĞLANANA KADAR LİKİDİTE TEDBİRLERİ ALINMALI

TCMB, öncekine göre değiştirilen PPK metninde “Enflasyon beklentilerinin kontrol altına alınması ve enflasyon görünümüne yönelik risklerin sınırlanması amacıyla para politikası ve likidite yönetimi kapsamında atılan adımlarla finansal koşullarda belirgin bir sıkılaşma sağlanmıştır. Bu doğrultuda Kurul, politika faizinin sabit tutulmasıyla birlikte, likidite yönetimindeki esnekliğin arttırılmasına ve enflasyon görünümünde belirgin bir iyileşme sağlanana kadar likidite tedbirlerinin sürdürülmesine karar vermiştir.” ifadesine yer verdi.

TCMB, GLP’deki faiz artışı sonrası ortalama fonlama maliyetini yüzde 13,08’lere kadar yaklaştırdı. TCMB yılın son enflasyon raporunda ise 2020 enflasyon hedefini yüzde 8,90’dan, yüzde 12,1’e yükseltirken, 2021 yılı için enflasyon beklentisini yüzde 6,9’dan, yüzde 9,4’e yükseltti.

TL’deki değer kayıplarının güçlenmesi ve enflasyon beklentilerinde bozulmaya neden olması durumunda TCMB’nin Kasım toplantısında politika faizini ortalama fonlama maliyetine yaklaştırarak yükseltmeye devam edebileceğini düşünüyoruz.

TL’NİN KAYIPLARININ BİR KISMINI GERİ ALARAK DENGELENMESİ BEKLENİR

Olası faiz artışının fonlama maliyetinin çok altında kalması ya da faizlerin sabit bırakılması durumunda TL’deki değer kayıplarının güçlenmesi ve volatilitenin devam etmesi beklenir. Ortalama fonlamanın yükseltilmesinin yanında politika faizinin enflasyon beklentilerine yaklaştırılması ve normalleşme adımlarına devam edilmesi durumunda ise 2020 yılında güçlü değer kaybına maruz kalan TL’nin kademeli olarak kayıplarının bir kısmını geri alarak dengelenmesi beklenir.

Fed toplantı tutanakları ve ay içinde açıklama yapan Fed başkanı ile üyeler, pandeminin ekonomi üzerinde yarattığı negatif etkileri azaltmak için ilave mali desteğin sağlanması gerektiğine işarete ettiler. Tutanaklarda ekonomik görünümdeki pozitif gelişmelere rağmen risklerin halen devam ettiği belirtildi.

MALİ DESTEK SAĞLANMAZSA TOPARLANMA HIZI YAVAŞLAR

Tutanaklarda ABD ekonomisinin üçüncü çeyrekte hızlı bir şekilde toparlandığına işaret edilirken ilave mali desteğin sağlanmaması durumunda ekonomik toparlanma hızının yavaşlayabileceğine dikkat çekildi. Bu bakımdan üzerinde anlaşma sağlanamayan ABD ek teşvik paketinin ekonomik toparlanmanın devamı için önemli olduğunu düşünüyoruz. Paketin seçime sorasına kalacağı beklentisi ve artan vaka sayıları Global olarak riskten kaçış eğiliminin güçlenmesine neden oluyor.

Ekim ayı başında 1.1720 direncini aşan EUR/USD paritesi önce bu seviyelerde kalıcılık sağladı ve sonrasında belirttiğimiz 1.1870 direncini test etti. Paritenin ay içinde gördüğü en yüksek seviye 1.1879 olurken, ayın sonlarına doğru hem vakaların artması hem de ABD seçimlerinin yaklaşmasıyla satışlar arttı. Riskten kaçışta dolara olan talep artarken, parite de 1.16’lı seviyelere indi.

KASIM AYININ EN ÖNEMLİ OLAYI KUŞKUSUZ ABD SEÇİMLERİ OLACAK

Kasım ayının en önemli olayı kuşkusuz ABD seçimleri olacak. Önceki seçimlere göre kullanılan oy sayılarındaki artış, anketlerdeki gibi Biden’ın zaferine işaret ediyor. Her ne olursa olsun seçim belirsizliği ortadan kalkacağı için fiyatlamalar biraz normale dönecektir. Parite 1.16 üzerinde kalabilirse 1.1750 ve 1.1870 direnç noktaları takip edilmelidir. Aksi yönde ise 1.16’dan sonra 1.1480 destek seviyesi izlenebilir.

Eylül ayında piyasaları olumlu yönde şaşırtan TCMB, Ekim ayında ise tam tersini yaptı. Piyasa beklentisine rağmen politika faizini artırmayan Merkez Bankası kararı sonrası Dolar/TL kuru 7.78’den 8.0’in üzerine yükseldi. TCMB’nin politika faizini değiştirmeden geç likidite penceresi faizini yükseltmesinin olumlu etkisi sınırlı oldu.

TÜRK LİRASINDAKİ NEGATİF AYRIŞMA MAALESEF DEVAM EDECEK

Sonraki günlerde de yükselişini sürdüren kur, ayın sonunda 8.35’in üzerinde fiyatlandı. Geçen ay belirttiğimiz yorumlar aynen geçerliliğini sürdürüyor. Piyasaya enflasyon beklentilerinde bozulma olması durumunda sıkılaştırma adımlarına devam edileceğinin güveni verilemedikçe Türk Lirasındaki negatif ayrışma maalesef devam edecek.

Bunun için de piyasaya sürprizlerden kaçınılması, politikaların basit ve anlaşılır şekilde uygulanması oldukça önemli olacak. Her gün yeni bir rekorun kırıldığı USDTRY’de Kasım ayı oldukça hareketli geçebilir. ABD seçim sonuçlarına göre TCMB’nin yeni adımlar gelebilir. Teknik olarak bakıldığında kurda 8.50 direnci aşılırsa 9.00 seviyesi hedeflenebilir. TL’ye talebin artması halinde ise 7.85 ve 7.15 destekleri takip edilebilir.

ONS ALTINDA FİYATLAR 1.870 DESTEĞİNE KADAR GERİ ÇEKİLDİ

ABD seçimlerinin yaklaşması ve koronavirüs vakalarının hızla artması sonrası 2. kapamaların başlaması, riskten kaçışı artırıyor. Bu da talebin emtialardan dolara kaymasına sebep oluyor. Bu sebeple satışların arttığı ons altında fiyatlar 1.870 dolar desteğine kadar geri çekildi.

Bu seviye, geçen yıl başlayan yükseliş trendinin önemli bir destek seviyesi olarak göze çarpıyor. Bu desteğin kırılması halinde 100 dolarlık bir düşüş potansiyeli gözüküyor. ABD seçimlerinin etkisiyle düşüşler devam ederse ilk destek 200 günlük ortalaması olan 1.770 dolara düzeyinde olacaktır. 1.680 seviyesi ise ikinci destek konumundadır. Alımların artması halinde ise 1930 direnç noktası olarak takip edilebilir.

EKONOMİLERİN TEKRAR KAPANIP KAPANMAYACAĞI TAKİP EDİLECEK                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Kasım ayında yurtdışı piyasaların gündemi yine yoğun olacak. Piyasaların ana gündemi artan vaka sayıları sonrası özellikle AB ülkelerinde kısıtlama ve tedbirlerin ne yoğunlukta uygulanacağı, ekonomilerin tekrar kapanıp kapanmayacağı takip edilecek.

Tedbirlerin artırılması ve ekonomilerin kısmi de olsa kapanma riskinin ortaya çıkması durumunda Ekim ayı sonunda özellikle Avrupa borsalarında oluşan satışların güçlenerek devam etmesi bekleniyor.

Piyasaların takip edeceği diğer önemli gündem maddesi ise 3 Kasım’da yapılacak ABD seçimleri olacaktır. Anketler Demokrat aday Joe Biden’in önde olduğuna işaret ediyor ve Biden’in kazanmasına piyasaların uygulamayı düşündüğü politikalar nedeniyle ilk etkisinin negatif olması bekleniyor.

BIDEN SEÇİLİRSE NE OLUR?

Diğer yandan Demokratların seçimlerden sonra daha büyük bir teşvik paketini gündem getirmeleri, seçim sonuçlarının negatif baskısını azaltabilir. Biden’in Türkiye’ye yönelik negatif açıklamaları nedeniyle seçilmesi durumunda TL varlıkların seçim sonuçlarına kısa vadeli tepkisinin negatif olması bekleniyor.

Aksine seçimlerden Trump’ın galip çıkmasına ise TL varlıkların kısa vadeli tepkisinin pozitif olması beklenir.  Bu beklentilerin ışığında global piyasalarda Kasım ayında da riskten kaçışın ve yüksek volatilitenin devam etmesi bekleniyor.

Yurt içinde ise Kasım ayında jeopolitik gelişmeler, AB ve ABD ile ilişkiler en önemli gündemi oluştururken, Covid-19 salgının seyri, kurlardaki oynaklığın devam edip etmeyeceği, makro veriler ve Merkez Bankası’nın faiz kararı yakından takip edilecek diğer konular olacaktır. Son dönemde Fransa ile yaşanan gerilim ve ABD ile ilişkilerin gerilebileceğine yönelik beklentiler güçlenirken Ekim ayı sonunda TL varlıklarda yaşanan negatif fiyatlamada bu beklentiler de önemli etken oldu.

Hem global risk iştahındaki zayıflama hem de jeopolitik risklerin artması nedeniyle Kasım ayında piyasalarda dalgalanmanın yüksek seyretmesi ve negatif fiyatlamanın ağır basması bekleniyor.

BIST’İN KASIM AYINDA 1.060-1.170 ARALIĞINDA DALGALANMASI BEKLENİYOR

ABD seçimlerini Trump’ın kazanması ve jeopolitik risklerin zayıflaması durumunda ise TL varlıklarda Kasım ayı sonuna doğru toparlanma yaşanabilir. Kasım ayları genellikle hedge fonlar için pozisyon kapatılan bir ay olması nedeniyle hem yurtiçinde hem de yurtdışında negatif fiyatlamaların oluşmasında etken olabilir.

BIST’in geçmiş Kasım ayı performansları incelendiğinde endekste genellikle dalgalı bir seyir ve negatif baskının oluştuğu ancak endeksin ay sonuna doğru bu kayıplarını telafi ettiği görülmektedir.

Bu beklentiler ışığında BIST’in Kasım ayında 1.060-1.170 aralığında dalgalanabileceğini, 1.070 ve altına gerilemelerin kısa vadeli alım fırsatı, 1.160 ve üzerine yükselişlerin satışı fırsatı olarak değerlendirilebileceğini düşünüyoruz.

Osman Göktan

Şeker Yatırım Genel Müdürü

goktan@turcomoney.com

 

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